Shipments of primary plastics machinery in North America fell sharply by 17.5% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the revised estimates for Q4 2024, according to the Committee on Equipment Statistics (CES) of the Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS). The total value of shipments for injection molding and extrusion equipment reached $252.1 million, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year decrease.
The decline was largely driven by a steep 21.8% fall in injection molding machinery shipments. Although shipments of single-screw and twin-screw extruders posted quarterly gains of 17.2% and 3.2%, respectively, they were not enough to offset the overall downturn. On a year-over-year basis, extruders showed robust growth — single-screw units surged by 31.2%, and twin-screw units by 10.9% — while injection molding equipment shipments dropped 8.9%.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Prompts Strategic Reevaluation
“Shipments appeared to pause in the first quarter as businesses reassessed strategies amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and trade policy,” said PLASTICS Chief Economist Perc Pineda, PhD. He noted that although there are encouraging signs in plastics manufacturing, capacity utilization, and broader industrial activity, the unpredictability of trade policy clouds near-term projections for equipment shipments.
Imports of plastics equipment into the U.S. rose by 6.2% in Q1 to $939.4 million, marking a 5.5% increase over the same period last year. In contrast, exports slipped 1.1% from the previous quarter to $325.3 million — an 18.6% decline compared to Q1 2024.
Global Manufacturing Outlook Deteriorates
Compounding the challenges at home is a bleaker global outlook. According to a report from UK-based Interact Analysis, a market intelligence firm focused on global supply chain automation, worldwide machinery markets are under mounting pressure from economic instability and fluctuating tariff regimes.
“The reliance the U.S. has on imported machinery parts and components has increased the impact of new trade barriers,” the report states, warning of a broad downgrade in projected manufacturing growth. Interact Analysis has revised its forecast for U.S. manufacturing growth in 2025 from a previously expected 4% to just 0.9%, citing heightened exposure to import-driven supply chains.
In Europe, manufacturing output is forecast to shrink, with the Eurozone projected to contract by 2.4% in 2025. This is attributed to the vulnerability of large manufacturers that depend on U.S. export markets. The outlook is similarly subdued for Switzerland, the UK, and Norway. Conversely, Turkey is expected to see manufacturing growth — though this is attributed primarily to inflationary forces.
From Optimism to Caution
These sobering projections mark a sharp reversal from the optimism seen at the start of 2025. Earlier in the year, signs pointed to a manufacturing rebound in both the U.S. and China, with Europe poised to emerge from a prolonged stagnation. However, shifting U.S. tariff policies — notably under President Trump’s administration — have led analysts to downgrade their outlooks, now anticipating that manufacturing recovery may be delayed until 2026.
Industry Still Shows Resilience
Despite current headwinds, a measure of optimism persists within the U.S. plastics sector. According to a CES member survey, 62% of respondents expect market conditions to stay steady or improve over the next 12 months, though this is down from 83% in the previous quarter. Encouragingly, quoting activity rose, with 42% of respondents reporting increased activity — up from 31%.
Pineda also pointed to signs of resilience in domestic investment. “One cannot overlook the capacity of plastics processors to meet end-market demand previously filled by imports affected by tariffs,” he said. Business investment in industrial equipment rose 4.8% in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted annual rate), including a notable 15.8% increase in metalworking machinery. According to Pineda, a stronger domestic plastics conversion sector could generate positive ripple effects across the entire supply chain.